The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be announced on Monday, and as it stands, it is not yet clear who will take home the most coveted individual honour in football.
There are three obvious frontrunners in Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal, but there are three former recipients in the chasing pack, Ousmane Dembélé, Rodri and eight-time winner Lionel Messi, while Michael Olise and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are legitimate dark horses.
What makes this year’s race so interesting is the fact that nobody has a cast-iron case, and it is very easy to make an argument both in favour and against each and every contender.
Ousmane Dembélé is bidding to win a second consecutive Ballon d’Or. After recovering from injury issues, the versatile forward once again played a pivotal role in Paris Saint-Germain winning a second consecutive Champions League. He scored six times in his team’s final four games in the competition before netting six goals as France finished fourth at the World Cup. However, he did not shine as brightly as in the previous season, and there is less buzz around him this year.
Harry Kane has been in sensational goal-scoring form for club and country. Nobody scored more goals than the England and Bayern Munich striker over the course of the 2025-26 season, with 73. His finishing helped Bayern record a domestic treble. Yet Kane’s case rests mainly on his impressive goal tally, as he did not win either the Champions League or the World Cup. He netted six times during England’s third-placed finish but went missing in the semi-final loss to Argentina.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was the most decisive player in last season’s Champions League. The Georgian winger was named the competition’s Player of the Season after becoming the first player to be directly involved in at least one goal in seven consecutive knockout stage matches as PSG retained their continental crown. The main drawback is that he did not get to play in the World Cup, which could hurt his chances with voters.
Kylian Mbappé scored more goals than anybody else in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup. His Golden Boot-winning heroics in North America also saw him become the tournament’s all-time leading scorer. Critics, however, claim that his individualism hinders the teams he represents, and his strike rate did not result in either his club or country winning a major trophy.
Lionel Messi rather remarkably proved at 39 that he remains one of the world’s best players. He inspired Inter Miami to their first MLS Cup success before leading Argentina all the way to a second consecutive World Cup final with a string of decisive displays. Had Argentina won the World Cup, Messi would likely have been the overwhelming favourite for a ninth Ballon d’Or. The nature of the defeat to Spain and the perception of MLS among voters may work against him.
Michael Olise has taken his game to another level since joining Bayern Munich. He assisted a record-breaking 41 goals across the 2025-26 campaign, including seven at the World Cup, and was named Bundesliga Player of the Season. Like Kane, however, he did not collect one of the major team prizes that often influence Ballon d’Or voting.
Rodri reminded everyone of his brilliance by inspiring Spain to World Cup glory. The midfielder was magnificent at the tournament as Spain starved opponents of possession on their way to lifting the trophy. His injury-interrupted club season with Manchester City, during which the team failed to win the Premier League or Champions League, remains a significant factor against him.
Lamine Yamal has added a World Cup winners’ medal to the European Championship title he won in 2024. The teenage winger won a second consecutive La Liga title and became the youngest player in football history to win both the European Championship and the World Cup. The main concern is that he was nowhere near his best at the World Cup, hindered by injury, and contributed just one goal with no assists.
With no clear favourite and strong arguments both for and against each contender, the 2026 Ballon d’Or race is widely regarded as one of the most open and unpredictable in recent years.
