Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up from its previous projection of 5.2%, following a stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year.
The research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings said Ghana recorded a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus in the first half of 2026, significantly higher than the average of about US$700 million recorded during the first halves of 2016 to 2025.
According to Fitch Solutions, the strong performance was largely driven by robust gold exports and increased crude oil shipments, which helped strengthen Ghana’s external position.
Strong Trade Performance Drives Revision
Fitch Solutions said the first-half trade surplus exceeded its expectations, prompting the upward revision of its full-year current account forecast.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
The revised projection points to a stronger external position for Ghana this year, with export earnings providing significant support to the country’s current account.
Gold remains particularly important to Ghana’s external position, serving as a major source of foreign exchange earnings alongside other key commodity exports.
Surplus Expected to Narrow in 2027
Despite the stronger outlook for 2026, Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s current account surplus to moderate in 2027.
The firm projects a narrower surplus next year but expects the balance to remain sizeable.
The outlook highlights the continued importance of commodity exports to Ghana’s external position, while also pointing to the risks associated with dependence on global commodity prices.
A sustained strong external position, Fitch’s projections suggest, will depend largely on the performance of Ghana’s key exports and developments in international commodity markets.
For now, the revised 7.8% of GDP forecast represents a significant improvement over Fitch Solutions’ previous outlook and reflects the stronger-than-anticipated performance of Ghana’s external sector during the first half of 2026.
