The Government of Ghana has significantly revised its projected petroleum revenue for 2026 upward to approximately $1.5 billion, citing stronger-than-expected crude oil prices on the international market.
The new forecast marks a substantial increase from the roughly $1 billion estimate originally contained in the 2026 Budget. The revision comes amid sustained high global oil prices, largely driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson disclosed the updated outlook in an interview with Bloomberg, noting that Ghana stands to benefit from improved export earnings as an oil-producing nation.
“We estimated approximately 1 billion United States dollars from the oil revenue this year… But that has been revised since and we expect that instead of a billion, we’ll be expecting about one and a half billion,” he said.
Dr. Forson explained that the revision reflects the gap between the conservative oil price assumption used in preparing the budget and current market realities.
“We had earlier on the programme, the budget of 2026, assumed that the oil price would be about $70. Today it’s in excess of $90 and so there is obviously an increase,” he stated.
While higher crude prices pose challenges for many oil-importing economies, the minister noted that Ghana is benefiting from increased foreign exchange inflows as a net exporter of crude oil.
“The good news is that because we had already programmed $70 or $74, a peace agreement that brings it back to $74 is to our advantage because we never anticipated that we’re going to go to $90 or $100 in any way,” Dr. Forson added.
The revised petroleum revenue projection is expected to be formally reflected in the government’s Mid-Year Budget Review scheduled for July.
The upward adjustment is anticipated to provide additional fiscal space to support key government programmes while helping to strengthen the country’s external position amid global economic uncertainties.
