As Trump hints at making Canada the ’51st state’, a report reveals a theoretical defence strategy to resist US forces if necessary The Canadian military has developed a model response to a US invasion, the Globe and Mail reported on Tuesday, as US President Donald Trump again muses online about a takeover of Canada. Citing two unnamed senior government officials, the paper said the Canadian response model centres on insurgency-style tactics, like those used in Afghanistan by fighters who resisted Soviet and later US forces. The Globe reported that the officials believe it is unlikely that Trump would order an invasion of Canada. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. After his 2024 election and in the early months of his new term, Trump repeatedly referred to the United States’ northern neighbour as the 51st state and said a merger would benefit Canada. Trump’s annexation talk has eased in recent months, but overnight he posted an image on his social media platform of a map showing Canada and Venezuela covered in the US flag, implying a full American takeover of both countries. Donald Trump’s AI-generated image of himself standing on a mountain with a Canadian flag next to him with the caption Donald Trump’s AI-generated image of himself standing on a mountain with a Canadian flag next to him with the caption The officials told the Globe that, in an invasion scenario, US forces would overcome Canadian positions on land and at sea in as little as two days. Because Canada does not have the military resources to resist the United States, the Canadian pushback would be shaped by an insurgency-style campaign, including ambushes and “hit-and-run tactics”, the report said. The Globe specified that the model being developed “was a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan, which is an actionable and step-by-step directive for executing operations”. Canada’s military did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the report. The paper said the military expects there would be clear indications in the event the United States were planning to invade, including a US decision to end bilateral cooperation in Norad, the North American Aerospace Defense Command. The Globe further said that Canada would likely call on Britain and France for help. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are both attending the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski town of Davos this week. The annual gathering of political and financial elites has been overshadowed by Trump’s threats to take over Greenland. Trump’s demand for US control of the Danish territory has tested Nato, the transatlantic alliance that includes Canada. Carney is reportedly considering sending a small number of troops to Greenland, following other Nato allies, as part of a show of support for the island. More Articles from SCMP China suffers unprecedented double rocket launch failures in a single day Hongkonger held in Japan over molesting teen, suspected to be repeat offender In Taiwan, pressure builds over US deal as critics question true cost of tariff cut How narrowing China-US gap could reshape global power play by 2035
Amid renewed speculation from U.S. President Donald Trump about annexing Canada as the “51st state,” a new report reveals that the Canadian military has developed a conceptual defence strategy centred on insurgency-style tactics to counter any hypothetical U.S. invasion.
According to The Globe and Mail on Tuesday, January 21, 2026, citing two unnamed senior government officials, the model draws inspiration from guerrilla warfare used by Afghan fighters against Soviet and later U.S. forces.
The report emphasises that the framework is purely theoretical — a conceptual study, not an actionable military plan or step-by-step directive.
Key points from the report:
- Rapid Conventional Defeat — U.S. forces would likely overwhelm Canadian positions on land and at sea within two days due to the vast disparity in military capabilities.
- Insurgency Response — Canada would shift to asymmetric warfare, including ambushes, hit-and-run tactics, and prolonged resistance rather than conventional defence.
- Indicators of Threat — The military expects clear warning signs, such as a U.S. decision to end bilateral cooperation in NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command).
- Allied Support — Canada would likely call on Britain and France for assistance in such a scenario.
The officials stressed that an actual U.S. invasion is considered highly unlikely.
Trump’s comments have reignited debate, especially after he posted an AI-generated image on his social media platform showing Canada and Venezuela covered in the U.S. flag, implying a full American takeover of both countries.
The remarks come as Trump prepares to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, starting January 21, 2026, where he is expected to meet European leaders — including Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney — in discussions that could address the Greenland issue and broader transatlantic tensions.
Trump has also claimed he has done more for NATO than anyone else, stating: “I think NATO exists today because of me.”
The report highlights growing unease about the future of the U.S.-Canada relationship and the broader Atlantic Alliance that has underpinned the post-war liberal order.
Canada’s military has not commented on the report.
